Assessing and predicting individual occupational risk and determining its exact categories using probabilistic methods

Existing approaches to occupational risk assessment more often involve evaluating its group levels and individual risks are assessed less frequently. These provide deterministic which doesn’t take into account uncertainty in categorizing when values close boundaries between adjoining categories. It substantiates the necessity assess using probabilistic methods. Our research object was basic subject distribution of among workers. test made up oil gas extraction operators exposed noise equal 80–85 dBA at their workplaces (173 people). control included engineering technical personnel occupationally 60–77.8 (259 We performed a priori health risks; accomplished epidemiologic analysis cause-effect relation disorders work; calculated predicted mathematical modeling dependence probable negative responses working conditions, age, period employment; determined categories precisely fuzzy sets by calculating membership function. As result, we established that proven were distributed unevenly (1.06•10-4–1.47•10-2) as per within characterized with suspected average level. A category sets; after probability evaluated detect moment share workers falling lower (p > 0.5) amounted 89.6 %. attempted predict for whole employment given conditions remained same no prevention activities provided. prediction revealed would remain unacceptable all amount 2.53•10-2–3.51•10-2; also expected become higher. In-dividual be categorized most high 23 % them < 0.5).